さて、・・・Paul Krugman(@paulkrugman)さん Twitter で公開された偉大なる安倍晋三閣下とノーベル賞学者のクルーグマン教授との・・・非公開会合の中身はこのPDF ですね。何で暴露されたのか・・・安倍首相赤っ恥 クルーグマン教授が極秘会合の中身を暴露 日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL 赤っ恥どころか、麻生財務大臣は経済政策としての戦争まで持ち出している・・・

It should be used for wage hike or dividend payment or the capital investment, but they are not doing that. They are just holding onto their cash and deposits. Reserved earnings have kept going up. A similar situation had occurred in the US in the 1930’s. 

What solved the question? War! Because World War II had occurred during the 1940’s and that became the solution for the United States. 

So, let’s look at the entrepreneurs in Japan. They are stuck with the deflationary mindset. They have to switch their mindset and should start making capital investments. We are looking for the trigger.


The important point about the war from the macroeconomic point of view is that it was a very large fiscal stimulus. That fact that it was a war is very unfortunate. It was simply something that led to a fiscal stimulus that would not otherwise have happened. ・・・大きな景気刺激政策になったのが戦争だということは、非常に残念な事実だ・・・私もそう思いますね。誰が始めた戦争かね?岸信介の属した内閣が引き金を引いたわけですからね・・・まあ、その前から日中戦争をやっていますからね・・・中国との事変では決定的な財政政策にはならなかった・・・だって、市場となる場所で戦争をやっているわけですから・・・戦争産業だけが忙しくなる・・・戦争が始まったから、そうでなければ無かった経済刺激策だよね。・・・確かに・・・恐ろしい話をしてるね・・・

In fact, the story in the 1930’s was that the New Deal, Roosevelt backed off the fiscal stimulus in 1937, because then, as now, there were many calls for balancing the budget. ・・・実際の話は、1930年代の話はニューディールでした、ルーズベルトは1937年に財政刺激政策を撤回しました。というのは、今のように、予算のバランスを取るための多くの要求があったからです。・・・まあ、予算の均衡ですね・・・日本はすでに崩れている状態からやっているからねぇ・・・どこまで借金を積めるかの問題ですね。税務署の役人と借金取りは必ず来ますからね・・・そろそろ利払いだって大変になる・・・だから、消費税の増税は必ずやる!ということのようですからね。しかし、景気刺激策としての戦争の話を持ち出しているのがね・・・どうなるのかね?日本は・・・

That was a terrible mistake. It caused the major second recession. ・・・それはとんでもない間違いでした。これは、主要な第二の景気後退を引き起こしました。・・・確かに、そうでしたね。支払い能力が担保されていれば、赤字財政もOK・・・でも、今の日本ではね・・・やはり、戦争か・・・この道しかない・・・この道はいつか来た道・・・ああ、そうだよ戦争の火が燃え上がる・・・

Yes, obviously we are looking for ways to achieve something like that without war. そう、当然、私たちは、戦争以外の何かでそれを達成する方法を探している。・・・信じてないね。本気で戦争の選択肢について尋ねていると思っているのではないかと・・・この話はやめよう・・・そんな感じですからね。


There has been a good deal of talk about using not just moral suasion which has already been done perhaps as an incentive to induce the private sector in Japan to raise wages. I have no knowledge of the institutional details about what might work but I am certainly in favor of trying such measures. ・・・戦争以外ならね・・・

That is one thing that can happen.

Other than that,the linkage between corporate earnings and corporate investment has always been weak. There has never been much reason to expect companies that have high profits to also invest, unless they see reason to expand capacity. And what is happening is that they have the deflationary mindset. They believe that Japanese growth will be weak.

Clearly if we look at the behavior of wages, they expect, or at least fear, that Japan will slide back down towards very lower negative inflation. What is still needed is a shock to break that. That is escape velocity. This is part of what I mean by escape velocity by achieving enough. Escape velocity: the rocket that goes fast enough to not come down again.



 そうなると、円紙幣の紙屑化の推進によって過去の借金を軽くして、庶民の貯蓄も軽くするしかないね。庶民が飛び降りることによって政府が生きることになるのか・・・ the rocket that goes fast enough to not come down again. 庶民は、偉大なる安倍晋三閣下のロケットを打ち上げるために・・・Bing Bong の役割をさせられるのかね?戦争が嫌なら金を出せ・・・これがわかりやすいね。ああ、ここまで読むと読み違いじゃなさそうだ・・・ああ、経済刺激政策としての戦争ね・・・すでに、戦争犯罪人予備軍だね・・・戦争犯罪人の一族かよ・・・まあ、「日本らしい日本」の体現者たちね・・・


Well, talking about Japan, in 2014, the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8%.
There was a last minute demand which came in. So right after that, we had seen a dampening effect on consumptions.

We are still having a lingering effect. We are thinking about the further rise in the consumption tax rate which was deferred by one year and a half but in case of Europe, as for the VAT raise, maybe in the European situation, the impact was not as large as that in Japan.

Why such a big impact in Japan? Because deflation continued for a 20 year period. Moreover, it is not a deflation situation anymore but we have not completely gotten out of the deflation. Do you think that is the reason that we are stuck with this kind of situation?



Regarding fiscal stimulus measures, I think there are some G7 countries which have enough policy space for fiscal stimulus, like Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom. But as you alluded, none of them are likely to implement significant stimulus measures in coming months. How do you think we should argue for further stimulus measures in those countries with enough fiscal space?






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